Preliminary findings suggest bad weather not to blame for Bayesian's sinking

Preliminary findings suggest bad weather not to blame for Bayesian's sinking

According to reports from Sky News, an ongoing investigation into Bayesian's sinking has found that the bad weather experienced on the night of the disaster was unlikely to have caused the yacht's capsizing.

Sky News reported that experts had been appointed by Italian prosecutors to determine the weather's intensity during the night of the sinking. Their preliminary findings allegedly revealed that the weather was "little more than a squall, a sudden increase in wind speed that precedes thunderstorms and downpours" – suggesting that the yacht's sinking therefore occurred due to the crew's "improper actions", including their underestimation of the weather and certain safety devices not being activated adequately.

The media outlet also referenced that the investigation is considering possible alleged crimes, including negligent shipwreck, multiple counts of manslaughter for the captain and crew.

The investigation findings appear to contradict those of the interim report released by the Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) in May 2025, which (from a study conducted by the University of Southampton) indicated that the strong, gusting winds would have likely resulted in the vessel capsizing, "irrespective of any interactions and blanketing effects". 

The study noted that the situation would have been "irrecoverable" once the yacht had heeled beyond an angle of 70.6 degrees. MAIB also previously stated that these "vulnerabilities" were not identified in the stability information book carried on board, meaning both the owner and crew would not have been aware.

TISG responds to press reports it is suing over Bayesian

Speaking exclusively to BOATPro, The Italian Sea Group (TISG) has responded to reports that it is suing Mike Lynch's widow and several crew members of the ill-fated Perini Navi sailing yacht, Bayesian, for £400 million in damages. “The filing represents a procedural step in relation to the damages reported," a statement from Perini Navi read. "Any determination of responsibility will depend on the outcome of the ongoing investigations.”

According to The Telegraph, court documents filed in Termini Imerese claim that the yacht's crew and holding company, Revtom, are ultimately responsible for its sinking in August 2024.

Since the tragedy, these court documents claim that TISG has suffered a "ruinous" loss of revenue and profits, declining share price (down 46 per cent since August 2024) and a collapse in the perceived value of Italian shipyard Perini Navi, which delivered Bayesian in 2008. 

One year on: How has the Bayesian sinking impacted the yachting industry?

It's been one year since the 56-metre Perini Navi sailing yacht Bayesian was hit by bad weather and sunk off the coast of Porticello, Sicily. BOAT investigates what the disaster means for the superyacht industry, speaking to a wealth of experts across topics including yacht legislation, yacht insurance, safety procedures on board yachts, and the mental health of superyacht crew.

Salvage of Bayesian concludes

Nearly a year on from her tragic sinking, and the final stage in the Bayesian salvage operation has been completed. The mast of the 56-metre Perini Navi – which measures a staggering 72 metres – was delivered to Termini Imerese last Wednesday (25 June).

TMC Marine, the company in charge of the salvage, noted that salvage teams had also removed "potential debris" that may have migrated from the sailing yacht over the past 10 months. This included deck furniture and other loose items that were identified during surveys of the seabed, completed using remote-controlled submersible equipment.

Hebo-Lift 10 – one of the most powerful cranes in Europe and a crucial tool in the salvage – departed Termini Imerese for Rotterdam on Friday (27 June). 

Bayesian transported to Termini Imerese

The 56-metre sailing yacht Bayesian has successfully landed ashore following her lift from the seabed on Saturday (21 June). The Perini Navi was settled on to a custom, Dutch-built cradle in Termini Imerese, approximately 10 nautical miles from the site of her sinking in Porticello. Salvage vessel Hebo-Lift 10 – one of Europe's most powerful sheerleg cranes – was responsible for transporting the wreckage.

New images suggest that Bayesian is in better condition than many had expected. Her exterior is largely intact, though there is clear damage to her taffrail and hardtop.

Bayesian fully raised ahead of transport to shore

The 56-metre sailing yacht Bayesian was raised out of the water by salvage cranes early this morning (21 June). This development marks the most significant step yet in the complex salvage of one of the world’s most high-profile sailing yachts.

According to TMC Marine, the company in charge of the salvage, the Perini Navi will remain suspended above the water for a series of initial inspections. She will then be transported to shore and settled in a specially built steel cradle, with this final stage scheduled for Monday (23 June).

Marcus Cave, director of TMC Marine, described the lifting operation as "complex and precise". "The salvage team has progressed in a systematic way that prioritised the safety of all working on site and minimised any potential impact on the environment," he said. "This care for personnel and for the environment will continue as Bayesian is transported into port tomorrow."

Bayesian now suspended above seabed ahead of Saturday surface lift

The full raising of Bayesian is now officially scheduled for early tomorrow (21 June), according to a statement released this afternoon by TMC Marine, the company in charge of the salvage.

Eight heavy-duty straps – four at the bow and four at the stern – are now holding the vessel securely in place beneath the floating crane vessel Hebo-Lift 10. The superyacht is currently suspended just above the seabed, with the accommodation now elevated temporarily out of the water.

Final checks and detailed preparations are now underway ahead of tomorrow's main lift, when Hebo-Lift 10 will begin slowly hoisting Bayesian fully out of the sea. Seawater will be pumped from the hull during the process, and the vessel will be held aloft over the weekend before transport begins.

If conditions remain favourable, Bayesian will be transported to the port of Termini Imerese on Sunday (22 June), and craned ashore into a specially built steel cradle on Monday (23 June).

Salvage director Marcus Cave of TMC Marine said the team had made “very substantive progress” in the last 10 days, and reiterated the importance of maintaining a secure perimeter around the site for safety. He added that the teams "are now preparing for the final, complex and delicate lifting operation, to bring Bayesian to the surface and ultimately into port."

Anti-pollution teams remain on standby throughout the operation, with oil booms in place around the lift zone.

Bayesian lifted from seabed in major salvage milestone

Bayesian has now been successfully lifted from the seabed off Sicily’s northern coast, marking a pivotal moment in the months-long recovery effort.

The operation, led by a specialist salvage team and supported by the heavy lift vessel Hebo-Lift 10, began earlier than anticipated and culminated today (20 June) with the yacht raised fully to the surface after three days of controlled elevation. 

Her distinctive blue hull and white superstructure are now visible above the waterline, and at the stern, the yacht’s name is beginning to re-emerge as seawater washes away 10 months of seabed sediment.

The yacht’s 72-metre mast was cut free earlier in the operation to allow for lifting. The base of the mast remains visible on the deck, while the mast itself still lies on the seabed and is expected to be salvaged separately at a later stage.

Bayesian righted on seabed ahead of weekend lift

Significant progress has been made in the recovery of Bayesian, with the superyacht now resting in a near upright position on the seabed. The vessel’s 72-metre mast was successfully detached and laid on the seafloor yesterday (17 June) using a precision diamond wire tool, clearing the way for hull adjustments. Salvors have since partially parbuckled the hull, aided by lifting slings.

In the coming days, hoses and plugs will be installed into the now accessible starboard side tank vents that previously lay directly on the seabed, 50 metres below the surface of the Tyrrhenian Sea in the Mediterranean.

With work to install these now underway, the vessel is expected to be brought fully upright this coming weekend (21-22 June). Subject to weather and final preparations, the Hebo-Lift 10 is scheduled to raise the hull to the surface this Saturday, followed by transfer to Terminal Imerese for handover on Monday (23 June), where the hull will subsequently be lifted onto a specially manufactured steel cradle that awaits on the quayside.

Marcus Cave, head of naval architecture and a director of TMC Marine, said: “The complex work to safely recover Bayesian has progressed quickly in the past week by the contractors’ personnel. Over the coming days, all going well, the vessel’s final recovery will take place this weekend and lead to her ultimate safe delivery to the authorities in Terminal Imerese.”

Pollution control remains active at the site, and the exclusion zone continues to be strictly enforced.