Owner and crew unaware of safety "vulnerabilities" on board Bayesian, according to interim safety report
An interim report released by the Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) has revealed that Bayesian "may have been vulnerable" to extreme weather, including "high winds" up to 87 knots. An analysis of the meteorological conditions, commissioned by MAIB and conducted by the UK Met Office, concluded that conditions were conducive to "supercells", an isolated mesocylonic storm that can produce damaging winds, hail, tornados or tornadic waterspouts.
A parallel study conducted by The University of Southampton, also commissioned by MAIB, indicated that if the wind was blowing directly onto Bayesian's beam, and the yacht was in the "motoring condition" – a position where the centreboard was raised and no sails were up – a gusting wind speed in excess of 63.4 knots would likely result in the vessel capsizing, "irrespective of any interactions and blanketing effects". The situation would have been "irrecoverable" once the yacht had heeled beyond an angle of 70.6 degrees. By 4:06am, Bayesian had heeled over 90 degrees to starboard, taking "less than 15 seconds to do so".
Crucially, MAIB noted that these "vulnerabilities" were not identified in the stability information book carried on board, meaning both owner and crew would not have been aware.
A full report will be released, with the salvage of the hull itself an integral component to the investigation. MAIB has confirmed that the criminal investigation underway in Italy has restricted access to the wreck and "other material elements of primary evidence".
In this week's podcast, BOAT explored the particulars of the MAIB report, including eyewitness recounts of what really happened on that fateful night. Listen below.